A place to indulge my narcissism... and write stuff...

Author: fifteenkey (Page 1 of 95)

Love or Hate?

I recently severed the remaining social media contact I had with friends and family who still support Donald Trump. I think the murder, yeah, just my opinion, of Renee Good in Minneapolis was my breaking point. There are arguments on both sides regarding the incident, but what local or state law enforcement officer would have shot a woman in the face, then two to three more times, before uttering, “fucking bitch” in a similar situation? Under the direction of Stephen Miller and Kristi Noem, ICE is terrorizing US communities for political coercion and control under the guise of “immigration enforcement.” It’s curious that they haven’t deployed ICE to red states like Texas, even though the Lone Star State has a much higher population of undocumented immigrants than the blue states where ICE has swarmed.

Back in 2020, I wrote “My Trump-supporting friends and family,” to understand how they could support a career con-man. In the years since, I culled those connections down to a few, and now they’re all gone. At least those I know of. It’s sure to be awkward if and when I see any of them in person, but I have lost all remaining respect for people who still support this idiotic, racist narcissist.

Still, I’m curious how they can still support the man. Greed, racism, and ignorance all come to mind, but based on my own in-person interaction with them, I still consider many of these people “good people.” Some of them were raised on or developed conservative values like limited government, individual liberty, free markets, and social tradition, or “moral order,” usually rooted in Judeo-Christian ethics. Given those values, how can they possibly believe Donald Trump stands for any of them now?

Yesterday, I listened to a podcast episode of the Ezra Klein Show with Yuval Levin, Director of social, cultural, and constitutional studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a prominent conservative/neoconservative think tank founded in 1938. He’s also the author of several books on policy and political theory, including “American Covenant: How the Constitution Unified Our Nation – and Could Again.”

Toward the end of the interview, Klein asked Levin about the difference between traditional conservatives and those of today. i.e. MAGA. Levin’s response nailed it:

“Now, I would say more than conservative, one way to think about the difference is about whether your politics begins from what you care about most, what you love, or whether it begins from what you fear and what you hate. To me, as a young person, conservatism was appealing and as remained appealing because it’s fundamentally rooted and begins from what we love in the world.”

“And so it seems to me that it’s incumbent upon older people on the right like myself to make the case to younger people on the right. That ultimately we win by advancing what we love in the world and by persuading the country, by persuading other Americans that they should love it too. And that understanding ourselves as being at war with our own society is not a recipe for an effective politics or a good life.

On this Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and given the vitriol on both sides politically in the US, I think it’s a constructive question to ask ourselves, “whether your politics begins from what you care about most, what you love, or whether it begins from what you fear and what you hate.” Perhaps more importantly, can we step back from that hate?

The Sound of Fascism

An Google AI Overview states:

“Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian political ideology characterized by extreme nationalism, a strong centralized government, a dictatorial leader, forcible suppression of opposition, and the subordination of individual rights to the perceived needs of the nation or state, often promoting militarism and a cult of national rebirth. It stands in stark opposition to democracy, liberalism, and communism, controlling society and the economy through total state power, as seen in regimes of Mussolini in Italy and Hitler in Germany.”

One of my son’s “Secret (Bonus-Mom) Santa” gifts was a wonderful theatrical performance of “The Sound of Music” at the Opera House in Boston on January 8th. Cayleigh Capaldi was wonderful as Maria, and Christiane Noll blew the roof off the Opera House with “Climb Every Mountain” as Mother Abbess.

Our day in Boston began around 3:30 with a 10,000+ step self-guided walking tour through Boston Common, past the outdoor skating rink, and into the Public Gardens, then down Newbury Street, and back up Boylston Street to the French Quarter on Washington, a cozy New Orleans-style eatery next to the Opera House.

The show was a brief respite from the news of the world, the most recent horror being the killing of US citizen, Renee Good, by an ICE Agent in Minneapolis. As the play moved to the Salzburg Festival, the von Trapp family performed, while using the event as cover to escape the Nazis. Five large red, white, and black Nazi flags were an ominous backdrop to the depicted festival. The images seared into my retinas, swirling in my mind with images of the parallel behaviors currently unfolding on our American streets.

Back on Boston Common, Americans peacefully demonstrated “to demand Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents leave the city and halt operations nationwide.”

In a social media post attributed to Karly Kingsley, she opined:

“The Obama administration deported over 3.16 million people. Biden’s passed 4.44 million. Not once did either need troops in the streets to do it. That’s all you need to know about what’s happening.”

Reflecting

This morning, a good friend and I exchanged text messages.

He: How’s it going?

Me: Good. Sort of in a year-end reflective thing. You?

Friday would have been my last day of work.

What now?

He: I received a care package from work, hundreds of dollars worth of stuff from coloring books to a bath robe, candy, gift cards. I’m reflecting on that.

Me: That’s interesting. It’s clear you make an impact on those you work with. There’s so much value in bringing humor and true human empathy to a job, in leadership or not. Helping to make the grind tolerable and even enjoyable is invaluable. Maybe I’ll reflect and write a bit about that.

So, about that.

I’m seeing these year-end reflection posts on LinkedIn. Most attempt to be uplifting when, for many, working life is grinding people down. 2025 produced a litany of desperate posts on this social media site for professionals. While it’s far worse for those worried about paying the mortgage or car payment, feeding their children, or even keeping a roof over their heads, many still working do so with the specter of the corporate grim reaper hovering, sickle at the ready. Although LinkedIn didn’t include it in my 2025 Year in Review, the highlight was being laid off. Yeah, it was a parting gift to someone contemplating retirement at year-end. While the gift was welcomed, the words, “Your position has been eliminated,” stunned me. I thought about the team I was responsible for and a larger team I worked with daily. I managed to fire off two “Goodbye” messages via Microsoft Teams before my company-issued laptop did the HAL9000, “My mind is going. I can feel it.” routine before shutting down. We didn’t get the chance for goodbyes.

There is no complete reflecting on a 42-year work life unless it’s in book form, so this will be the abridged version. I wouldn’t call my labor a career. I didn’t plan it, and I was lucky. I had some excellent managers, worked with many smart, talented people, and served two good companies. The jury is still out on the third. The people who stand out over the years connected on a human level. They cared about people, not simply the means of production. Of course, production matters, so get shit done.

The one reflection I do have is a hope that during my 10,000+ days of work, I helped make the grind tolerable and even enjoyable for those I shared it with.

Thanksgiving 2025

Earlier this month, at an 8:15 AM Monday one-on-one video call with my new boss, he said, “Hold on. Someone else is joining us.” My heart sank a little, and at the same time, a lightness filled me. A young woman from “People Services” joined, and after some other blah blah blah I wasn’t processing, I heard, “Your position has been eliminated.” After some other scripted details were recited, the call ended after about five minutes. I scrambled to send a Microsoft Teams message to my team and a larger team I worked with daily. It read:

Goodbye

I was just laid off.

A minute later, I stared at this:

Even though I had hoped for this outcome, hearing the words still stung. If they could cut me loose, what did that say about my performance? I thought about my team and what would happen to them. I wondered if they or others were impacted. I later learned that while my team was safe, others were not. One of the things I’m thankful for is that I don’t have to work. I was planning to retire at year’s end. Others don’t share my good fortune, and the tech job market is brutal right now. Tech layoff estimates in 2025 range from 100,000 to 180,000. It looks like the trend will continue. Just this week, “MIT released a study that found that artificial intelligence (AI) can already replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor market, or as much as $1.2 trillion in wages across finance, health care, and professional services.”

For the last year and a half, I’ve worked with AI. I don’t believe all the hype. AI is incredible technology, but it does “hallucinate” and is highly dependent on the quality of the data it uses. I believe most companies are lacking in that area. It’s the decades-old “garbage in, garbage out” rule of computing.

A couple of weeks in, and I’m not sure this “retirement” thing is for me. Not yet, anyway. I’ll think about what I want to do over the holidays and go from there. I’m thankful I have the option to take that time. Some of my former peers and many others younger than me are probably scrambling for the few available jobs, terrified for their future and how they’ll take care of their families and pay the bills.

Be thankful if that’s not you.

Tom and David

Former political analyst and advisor to four US Presidents, David Gergen died this week at 83. A CNN spokesperson said he was “always happy to share his wisdom and his spotlight with others.”

“A political scholar who served four presidents of both parties, an adoring father and dedicated husband, a senior statesman in every sense of the word, and a tireless educator. But above all else, David was a relentlessly kind and warm person.”

I never met the man, so I suppose he was “a relentlessly kind and warm person.”

Years ago, I was waiting for a flight when I witnessed a scene like the Google Gemini image pictured here. Author Tom Peters, dressed like he just jumped off a tractor after plowing the back 40, approached Mr. Gergen. Mr. Peters is a widely acclaimed author, having sold  over 10 million copies of his books. One that he co-authored in 1982, “In Search of Excellence,” is one of the best-selling business books of all time, selling over 3 million copies in its first four years.

Anyway, as Mr. Peters approached and addressed the seated Mr. Gergen, Gergen barely looked up from his newspaper. After a few awkward seconds Mr. Peters walked away. I wonder if he recalled the encounter upon hearing of Mr. Gergen’s passing. I think a lesson here is that dressing like a farmer in a baseball cap in an airport is effective for maintaing anonymity. There’s another possible explanation involving Mr. Gergen’s character, but why go there? RIP

Shock Value

Cartoon image of people screaming "GAME-CHANGER"

Image created by Gemini AI

My wife, son, and I have been watching “The Righteous Gemstones” on HBO Max – the series was an algorithm-based recommendation after we finished “The White Lotus.” The Gemstones are a family of Christian televangelists led by Walter… uh, sorry (he’ll always be “Walter” from “The Big Lebowski” to me), Eli Gemstone, played by John Goodman. The show exposes the hypocrisy of some of this ilk, but takes it to an extreme, blending the worst of Jim and Tammy-Faye Bakker with scenes out of “The Sopranos.” That’s where “shock value” comes in. The show has so many interesting characters and storylines that the gratuitous violence, while absurdly funny at times, isn’t necessary.

Which brings me to the fawning promotion of Generative Artificial Intelligence on LinkedIn. The constant breathless use of the term “game-changer” by “influencers” every time an AI vendor comes out with their newest “o3 x-squared y-axis” is tiresome. I prompted Google’s Gemini AI, “Please provide me 10 variations of the term ‘game-changer’ that are not already cliche.

Okay, here are 10 less cliché variations of “game-changer”:

  1. A fundamental recalibration: This emphasizes a significant adjustment or re-evaluation of existing systems.
  2. The linchpin alteration: This highlights the change as a crucial element that fundamentally alters the whole.
  3. A tectonic realignment: This suggests a deep and structural shift in the landscape.
  4. The pivotal disruption: This focuses on the critical and unsettling nature of the change.
  5. An epoch-defining moment: This positions the change as something that marks the beginning of a new era.
  6. A categorical departure: This emphasizes a clear and distinct break from previous norms.
  7. The keystone advancement: This highlights the change as essential and supporting everything else.
  8. A generative upheaval: This suggests the change will create significant new possibilities and developments.
  9. The operative pivot: This emphasizes the practical and decisive nature of the change.
  10. A transfiguring innovation: This highlights how the change fundamentally alters the form or appearance of something.

The point is, most AI “news” is simply regurgitated PR and does not rise to the level of being “game-changers,” “tectonic realignments,” or “epoch-defining moments,” yet I always see it. Why? I think it concerns something called “the attention economy.” Again, Gemini AI can describe it better than me:

“The attention economy describes the current state where human attention is a scarce and valuable resource, much like traditional commodities. In a world saturated with information and constant digital stimulation, individuals and businesses fiercely compete to capture and retain our focus. This has led to various strategies, often employing persuasive technologies and content designed for maximum engagement, shaping not only how we consume information and entertainment but also impacting our social interactions, mental well-being, and even political discourse.”

The attention economy is why everything is “BREAKING NEWS” and why the algorithms of social media platforms promote shocking content. They need to keep your eyeballs looking at them for as long as possible to 1. Learn what interests you most, and 2. Serve you ads based on that knowledge.

The last three words of Gemini’s description got my attention, too. The attention economy also helps explain the current shock-and-awe political strategy. While the daily firehose of outrage keeps us rapt, I wonder what worse scenarios are occurring behind the scenes creating an epoch-defining moment, and not in a good way.

Life Worth Living, Part 2

Part 1 was twenty years ago, just after a trip to Manhattan. “What makes your life worth living” was posed at the end and recent events have me wondering again. This year has been a motherfucker, but this post isn’t even about Trump. In mid-January, my mom fell at home, thus beginning an odyssey of overcrowded, brightly-lit emergency room hallways, nursing home rehabs, and drugs – for pain, twitching muscles, infection, water retention, and pain. Did I mention pain? How much pain could you endure before you’d want to tap out?

My life has been so damned easy relative to most. Some of the faces Beth and I saw while walking the concrete canyons of NYC this week were etched with pain or some hard-living equivalent. We wondered about their stories. For those more fortunate, there was hard work and likely low pay. Beth noted, “It takes a lot of workers to run this city.” When I began working in 1974, the minimum wage was $1.60. Fifty-one years later it’s $7.25. Just to keep up with inflation, my ’74 rate should now be $12.29. As I interacted with or observed the hotel front desk clerk, men carrying racks of produce, others digging a hole on 7th Avenue, guides at the Empire State Building, and a man sweeping up trash in the gutter fronting a hotel, I wondered where they lived and how they survived. If they received a medical death sentence, would they fight for their life? Would their life be worth living?

My oldest cousin visited my mom in February. We chatted in the hospital room. As she prepared to leave, a phone call summoned her to her sisters where the younger was experiencing some kind of seizure. Hours later my text was responded with, “She died.” Five weeks later, the male sibling of the family died. On March 8th, he checked himself out of the hospital after a diagnosis of liver cancer. Three days later he was gone. He was ashen and frail at his sister’s services, so the news of his illness wasn’t surprising, but the swift end was. It seems he may have concluded, “Fuck this. I’m out.” I don’t know.

My mom got her Nursing degree while I was in high school. A paper she wrote back then was on euthanasia. She was a proponent. I think Elisabeth Kübler-Ross’s book, “On Death and Dying: What the Dying Have to Teach Doctors, Nurses, Clergy and Their Own Families” influenced her position. At the darkest point in January, and while delirious from an infection, Mom pointed at something she saw above her and in a shaky whisper said, “This is hell.” She couldn’t tell me what. I researched assisted suicide. It’s not legal in Massachusetts. It is in Vermont, but you must be a citizen. As recovery progressed, I sensed a reset from her view on assisted suicide. Despite the chronic pain, my mother finds life worth living. For what? Her children? Grandchildren and great-grandchildren? Watching the Masters? Cooking shows? Chatting with her daughter-in-law? The tomato plant we’ll bring in May? The Maple Walnut ice cream we’ll take her for in July?

Yeah. All of it.

“Plastics,” the sequel

In the 1967 film, “The Graduate,” Mr. McGuire, played by Walter Brooke, tells a young Dustin Hoffman’s Benjamin Braddock, “I just want to say one word to you… just one word… are you listening? Plastics.”

I sometimes feel like Mr. McGuire, as I constantly implore “AI” to my team of young(er) tech professionals to “Master it before it masters you.” That one’s original, but another used when I felt their passive reluctance is attributed to economist Richard Baldwin, “It’s unlikely AI will take your job. It’s more likely that somebody using AI better than you will take your job.”

I’m unsure when my mind made the “Graduate”- AI connection, but the parallel exists. “Plastics” was a sort of AI of the time – the next big thing. A new technology, though I’m not sure many understood the potential long-term implications the new invention would have on future generations, and until recently, the impact of microplastics was not well known or understood. AI is similar. There are many Mr. McGuire’s out there, especially those trying to raise venture capital, and there are others raising fears, yet we don’t have a good understanding of whether AI warrants either the money being thrown at it or if we have much to fear from it.

In my opinion, one thing is sure. AI is an incredibly powerful tool and is, and will continue to be, disruptive in business and in our daily lives. Learning and leveraging it is better than going Luddite and remaining disadvantaged. Like plastics in the ’60s, anything that delivers economic benefit will thrive and grow. AI isn’t going anywhere.

As for the impacts of plastics and the parallels with AI today, I asked my friend Claude to weigh in. I hope our discussion provides an excellent example of what a powerful tool AI can be for you.

Fifteenkey: Please act as an environmentalist and explain to me when plastics became big in the United States and what the impact on our environment has been since.

Claude: As an environmentalist, I’ll provide an overview of the rise of plastics in the United States and their profound environmental impact.

The widespread use of plastics in the United States began in earnest during the 1950s, following World War II. Before the war, materials like glass, metal, and natural fibers dominated consumer products. However, the post-war economic boom, coupled with innovative petrochemical technologies, led to a massive proliferation of plastic materials.

Key milestones in plastic adoption include:

  1. 1950s: Mass production of consumer plastics begins
  • Plastic packaging, disposable containers, and synthetic clothing become increasingly common
  • Manufacturers tout plastics as convenient, lightweight, and inexpensive alternatives to traditional materials
  1. 1960s-1970s: Plastic becomes ubiquitous
  • Single-use plastics emerge, including disposable shopping bags, food packaging, and beverage containers
  • The concept of “disposability” is marketed as a modern convenience
  • Petroleum-based plastic production skyrockets

Environmental Impact:

The environmental consequences have been catastrophic and long-lasting:

  1. Pollution and Waste
  • Over 8.3 billion metric tons of plastic have been produced since the 1950s
  • Approximately 79% of this plastic has accumulated in landfills or natural environments
  • Oceans are now filled with massive plastic garbage patches, with an estimated 8 million metric tons of plastic entering marine ecosystems annually
  1. Microplastic Contamination
  • Plastics break down into tiny particles called microplastics
  • These particles have infiltrated every ecosystem on Earth, from the deepest ocean trenches to remote mountain ranges
  • Microplastics are now found in human blood, placenta, and even breast milk, with unknown long-term health consequences
  1. Wildlife Impact
  • Marine animals frequently ingest or become entangled in plastic debris
  • An estimated 100,000 marine mammals and over 1 million seabirds die each year from plastic-related incidents
  • Plastic pollution disrupts entire marine food chains and ecosystems
  1. Climate Change Connection
  • Plastic production is highly petroleum-dependent
  • The plastic industry contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions
  • Manufacturing one ton of plastic generates up to 2-3 tons of carbon dioxide
  1. Recycling Failure
  • Despite recycling efforts, only 9% of plastic waste is actually recycled
  • Most plastics are downcycled or end up in landfills
  • Complex plastic compositions make comprehensive recycling extremely challenging

The environmental legacy of plastics represents a critical challenge for our generation. Addressing this issue requires comprehensive strategies including:

  • Reducing single-use plastics
  • Developing biodegradable alternatives
  • Improving waste management infrastructure
  • Implementing stricter regulations on plastic production and disposal
  • Investing in circular economy models

As an environmentalist, I believe transformative action is crucial to mitigate the devastating environmental impact of our plastic-dependent society. The next decades will be critical in determining whether we can reverse the extensive ecological damage caused by our plastic consumption.

Fifteenkey: And what have the benefits of plastics been over the years?

Claude: While environmental concerns are significant, plastics have also brought numerous important benefits to society since their widespread adoption:

  1. Medical Advancements
  • Disposable, sterile medical equipment has revolutionized healthcare
  • Plastic syringes, IV bags, surgical gloves, and prosthetics have improved patient safety and medical treatment
  • Lightweight, durable medical devices have made complex procedures more accessible and affordable
  • Helped reduce the spread of infectious diseases through single-use medical supplies
  1. Food Safety and Preservation
  • Plastic packaging extends food shelf life dramatically
  • Reduces food waste by protecting products from contamination and spoilage
  • Enables safer transportation of food over long distances
  • Provides better hygiene in food storage and distribution
  • Helps maintain food quality and nutritional value for longer periods
  1. Transportation and Fuel Efficiency
  • Plastic components significantly reduce vehicle weight
  • Lighter car parts improve fuel efficiency and reduce carbon emissions
  • Used in aerospace and automotive industries to create more energy-efficient vehicles and aircraft
  • Helps create more affordable transportation options
  1. Technological Innovation
  • Essential in electronics manufacturing
  • Enables production of computers, smartphones, and other digital devices
  • Provides insulation for electrical components
  • Critical in developing lightweight, portable technology
  1. Consumer Affordability
  • Plastic products are generally less expensive than traditional materials
  • Makes many goods more accessible to people across different economic backgrounds
  • Allows for mass production of household items, toys, and tools
  1. Safety and Durability
  • More shatter-resistant than glass
  • Lightweight and flexible
  • Resistant to corrosion
  • Used in protective gear, child-safe packaging, and safety equipment
  1. Agricultural Improvements
  • Plastic irrigation systems
  • Greenhouse coverings that extend growing seasons
  • Protective packaging for seeds and agricultural products
  • Helps improve crop yields and farming efficiency

While these benefits are substantial, they must be carefully weighed against the significant environmental challenges plastics have created. The key moving forward is developing more sustainable plastic alternatives and improving waste management strategies.

Fifteenkey: Can you estimate how many jobs were created in the plastics industry and how many jobs were lost due to the creation of plastics?

Claude: I’ll provide an overview of job creation and potential job displacement related to the plastics industry, drawing from available historical and economic data.

Job Creation in the Plastics Industry:

  1. Manufacturing Sector
  • The plastics industry has been a significant job creator since the 1950s
  • Currently, the U.S. plastics industry employs approximately 1 million workers directly
  • As of 2022, there were around 16,000 plastics manufacturing establishments in the United States
  • These jobs span various sectors including:
    • Plastic product manufacturing
    • Plastic materials and resin production
    • Equipment and machinery design
    • Research and development
    • Engineering
    • Sales and distribution
  1. Economic Impact
  • The plastics industry generates approximately $589 billion in annual shipments
  • Provides employment across multiple skill levels, from manufacturing workers to high-tech engineers
  • Creates indirect jobs in related industries like chemical manufacturing, packaging, and transportation

Job Displacement: While precise numbers are challenging to calculate, plastics have impacted several traditional industries:

  1. Manufacturing Sectors Affected
  • Glass bottle production significantly reduced
  • Traditional packaging material manufacturers (metal, wood, paper) experienced job losses
  • Some textile manufacturing jobs replaced by synthetic materials
  • Handcraft and traditional manufacturing roles diminished
  1. Estimated Job Losses
  • Difficult to quantify exactly, but likely in the hundreds of thousands across various industries
  • Most significant displacement occurred in:
    • Glass manufacturing
    • Traditional packaging industries
    • Some metalworking sectors
    • Certain textile manufacturing roles

It’s important to note that while some jobs were lost, the plastics industry often created new, different types of jobs. The net effect has been generally positive in terms of employment, with the plastics industry creating more jobs than it displaced.

Interesting Economic Nuance: The rise of plastics didn’t just replace jobs, but fundamentally transformed manufacturing. Many displaced workers found opportunities in new plastic-related industries, representing a shift rather than a pure loss of employment.

Caveat: These figures are estimates based on available economic data and may not capture the full complexity of industrial transformation caused by the widespread adoption of plastics.

Fifteenkey: So, would you consider the introduction of plastics to be a net positive or negative in the United States?

Claude: As an environmentalist, I would argue that the introduction of plastics presents a complex and nuanced picture with both significant benefits and profound drawbacks. It’s not a simple binary of positive or negative, but rather a complicated legacy with serious consequences we’re still grappling with.

From a balanced perspective, plastics have been a double-edged sword:

Positive Contributions:

  • Revolutionized medical care with sterile, disposable equipment
  • Improved food safety and reduced food waste
  • Enabled technological innovations
  • Created hundreds of thousands of jobs
  • Made many consumer goods more affordable
  • Supported critical advances in transportation efficiency
  • Provided lightweight, durable materials for numerous applications

Negative Consequences:

  • Catastrophic environmental pollution
  • Massive ecological disruption in marine and terrestrial ecosystems
  • Contribution to climate change through petroleum-based production
  • Microplastic contamination in global food chains
  • Long-term environmental degradation
  • Health risks from chemical leaching and microplastic exposure

If forced to make a definitive assessment, I would cautiously say that while plastics brought important short-term benefits, their long-term environmental costs likely outweigh those advantages. The environmental damage we’re experiencing – and will continue to experience for generations – represents an unsustainable trajectory.

The most responsible path forward isn’t to completely eliminate plastics, but to:

  • Dramatically reduce single-use plastics
  • Invest heavily in biodegradable alternatives
  • Develop comprehensive recycling infrastructures
  • Create circular economic models
  • Prioritize environmental restoration

The introduction of plastics represents a critical lesson about technological innovation: we must consider long-term ecological consequences, not just immediate convenience and economic gain.

Fifteenkey: Would you say that we must also measure the short-term benefits against the long-term consequences of artificial intelligence?

Claude: This is an excellent parallel that requires nuanced consideration. Just as with plastics, artificial intelligence (AI) presents a complex landscape of potential short-term benefits and long-term consequences that we must carefully evaluate.

Short-term AI Benefits:

  • Breakthrough medical diagnostics
  • Accelerated scientific research
  • Improved efficiency in various industries
  • Potential solutions to complex global challenges
  • Enhanced problem-solving capabilities
  • Advances in personalized education and healthcare

Potential Long-term Consequences:

  • Significant workforce displacement
  • Ethical concerns about privacy and surveillance
  • Potential existential risks from advanced AI systems
  • Deepening economic inequalities
  • Challenges to human agency and decision-making
  • Potential for misuse by malicious actors
  • Unpredictable societal and psychological impacts

The plastics analogy is particularly apt. Just as early plastic innovators didn’t fully anticipate the environmental catastrophe they were creating, we may be at a similar inflection point with AI. The immediate conveniences and innovations could be masking potentially profound and irreversible consequences.

The key lessons from the plastics revolution suggest we need:

  • Proactive, comprehensive regulation
  • Ethical frameworks that prioritize long-term human welfare
  • Robust mechanisms for assessing and mitigating risks
  • Transparent development processes
  • Interdisciplinary approaches that consider broader societal impacts

Unlike plastics, which took decades to reveal their full environmental impact, we have the opportunity with AI to be more forward-thinking and precautionary. We must balance innovation with responsible stewardship, learning from historical technological transformations that prioritized short-term gains over long-term sustainability.

The most responsible approach is to proceed with cautious optimism, continual assessment, and a commitment to understanding and mitigating potential negative consequences.

Oh say, can you see?

I listen to podcasts when I ride my bicycle. Sometimes the sights, sounds, and blood pumping up billions (OK, fewer than there used to be) of neurons coalesce into thoughts like small flowing tributaries merging into a life-affirming river. Yesterday’s blend included the words of Wilco’s Jeff Tweedy, politics, the recent Olympics, and a gently waving flag.

The 10% Happier podcast featuring Dan Harris interviewing the Wilco frontman is a worthy listen. In fact, I may need a repeat. Jeff is a deep dude, and the conversation was fun and insightful. In the deep end, here’s his take on how each of us uniquely experiences a song, or any art, really:

“…each song has its own meaning with each consciousness it encounters. In some cases, the meaning might be almost nothing because it doesn’t work. The magic doesn’t work for some people. That song could mean everything completely and encapsulate a moment in time in their life. It could like intertwine itself with sense memories like even smell, you know. So there’s just… it’s just about how beautiful. I think that is that we can listen to a song you and I can like the same song. We can love the same song. We can maybe even compare notes and think that the song means just about the same thing and like on its face. But your version of it is never going to be exactly like mine and the way that your life gets absorbed into that song is going to be its own world compared to mine.”

Pedaling along through a local park, a gently waving flag caught my eye. It burned an impression in me because, on my return trip, I stopped to take this picture.

The light wind breathed a gentleness into the red, white, and blue cloth and while it evoked a positive feeling at that moment, Tweedy’s words had me wondering how others at different times and places perceived our national symbol.

Scenarios ran through my mind like a flickering filmstrip. I recalled recently watching “Band of Brothers” and the scenes of American troops liberating a German concentration camp. How did those prisoners see our flag? What about Vietnamese civilians during that conflict in the 60’s and 70’s? Some of you may remember the national unity we felt in the aftermath of 9/11 and the powerful symbolism of our flag being raised against a backdrop of death and destruction. The reasons for hatred of our country by many in the Middle East and across the world can be debated, but for the moment, I think it’s understood our flag is not universally loved.

That brings me back home to a place where our flag is not co-opted by fellow citizens who attempted to overturn an election on behalf of a man who received five military draft deferments to avoid serving his country.

Then there’s Gabby. Gabby Thomas, Simone Biles, Katie Ledecky, Quincy Hall, Cole Hocker, Kristen Faulkner, Torri Huske, Ryan Crouser, LeBron James, Sha’Carri Richardson, Noah Lyles, A’ja Wilson, Kahleah Copper, Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone, Christophe Bailey, Vernon Norwood, Bryce Deadmon, Rai Benjamin, and so many other US athletes were rewarded for their efforts and draped themselves in the Stars and Stripes while looking thrilled to do so.

Last week, after getting lost in the hills of nearby Leominster and Sterling, MA, I was struggling to get home over the last 10 or so miles when I saw a flag hanging off a building 100 years ahead and up a hill. My legs were leaden, and my breathing was just about maxed out. I was tempted to stop and walk up the hill. That’s when my imagination kicked in with a motivator, “Fuck that, dude. If you quit, Trump’s going to win.” I pedaled up the hill and the rest of the way home.

I want our flag back and more reasons to feel pride when looking at it.

Tour de Falmouth!

Besides the family bonding, the beach, the restaurants, and the not working thing, last week’s Cape Cod vacation was about riding my bike. A lot. I had one goal going into the week: to do a 30-mile ride, but once I logged an opening 26.48 on Sunday, a dual goal of 100 miles was established for the week, mostly pedaled along the Shining Sea Bike Trail. I hit both goals and scored 14.79 bonus miles on a family ride from West Falmouth to Woods Hole.

The week was a 3-generation potpourri of Senior Citizens (not naming names), daughters, a son, and grandchildren of varied genders, ages, and bike riding capability (again, not naming names). I must give props to my daughter, Megan, who at (number redacted) years old and quite pregnant, banged out the nearly 15-miles like a champ. Grandson Luca and I stopped about 15 times so the group with the newbie rider (no names) could catch up to us. The boy and I were a tandem, with the little dude’s “bike” hitched to mine. It was more like a chariot, with Luca playing Charlton Heston and me playing the horse. A few times over the route, this conversation took place:

Me: “Luca, are you pedaling?”
Luca: “No!”

My solo rides were just as eventful.

Day one, I was riding along the bike path when I approached a damsel in distress. I initially rode past her, but seeing that one of her pedals had fallen off, I thought I could help, so I banged a uey. When she looked up, I was startled and said, “oh, I’m not sure I can help you wearing that Yankees hat.” The poor woman explained that she bought the hat in Canada and didn’t know what team it was for. You know, since 2004, I have more empathy for those poor fans, so I helped her get her pedal back on. A few miles later, as I was crossing busy Route 28 to get back on the path, the same pedal fell off my bike in the middle of the road. Clearly, the karma police were not happy I helped someone sporting the dark mark of the Evil Empire.

During the dirty thirty, I navigated downtown to see if the wonderful Greek place could accommodate a party of 12 for my granddaughter’s birthday. Across the street, in front of the Falmouth Post Office, a woman caught my attention and pointed to a man across the street who seemed lost. The woman said she believed he was blind. I wheeled over and asked if he was OK. He wondered where he was. “Well, Osteria La Civetta is behind you to your right, and Estia is behind to your left.” “Is the Post Office across the street?” “Yes,” I replied. The problem the man faced was a delivery truck protruding out over the sidewalk from a driveway between the restaurants. I helped him and his guide dog around the truck and we chatted for a few minutes in front of Estia. Dwight was in town for six weeks while his wife worked at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. After speaking with the hostess about seating, the encounter and conversation with Dwight stayed with me. Though disabled and facing a frustrating obstacle, Dwight was unfazed and calm. As I rode off toward the bike path, so was I.

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